Betting on Disparate Visions

Parimutuel Betting on Permutations

We focus on a permutation betting market under parimutuel call auction model where traders bet on the final ranking of n candidates. We present a Proportional Betting mechanism for this market. Our mechanism allows the traders to bet on any subset of the n ‘candidate-rank’ pairs, and rewards them proportionally to the number of pairs that appear in the final outcome. We show that market organiz...

Betting on the Real Line

We study the problem of designing prediction markets for random variables with continuous or countably infinite outcomes on the real line. Our interval betting languages allow traders to bet on any interval of their choice. Both the call market mechanism and two automated market maker mechanisms, logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) and dynamic parimutuel markets (DPM), are generalized to han...

On Adaboost and Optimal Betting Strategies

We explore the relation between the Adaboost weight update procedure and Kelly’s theory of betting. Specifically, we show that an intuitive optimal betting strategy can easily be interpreted as the solution of the dual of the classical formulation of the Adaboost minimisation problem. This sheds new light over a substantial simplification of Adaboost that had so far only been considered a mere ...

Betting on Fuzzy and Many-valued Propositions

In a 1968 article, ‘Probability Measures of Fuzzy Events’, Lotfi Zadeh proposed accounts of absolute and conditional probability for fuzzy sets (Zadeh, 1968). Where P is an ordinary (“classical”) probability measure defined on a σ-field of Borel subsets of a space X, and μA is a fuzzy membership function defined on X, i.e. a function taking values in the interval [0, 1], the probability of the ...

BETting on combination to overcome PARPi resistance